La deflación es una puta.
Con tan castiza expresión definía el blogger Shilochi Zang la situación económica deflacionaria a la que, en su opinión y la de sus compañeros (al parecer Shilochi trabaja para una firma de consultoría), se dirige España.
Siempre son de agradecer los análisis que personas de otros países puedan hacer de tu nación si, como en el caso del de Shilochi, son honestos y se basan en datos reales (otra cosa es que sus conclusiones sean las acertadas), ya que aportan ese distanciamiento que a los nativos nos puede faltar cuando examinamos nuestro propio país.
Sin embargo, no deja de sorprenderme el contraste entre el pesimismo que impregna todo el análisis de Shilochi sobre la situación económica española y el optimismo que muestra al examinar la de su propio país, cuando, objetivamente, el peligro de deflación, en China, es tanto o mayor que el que existe en España como consecuencia del exceso de capacidad en que están incurriendo la casi totalidad de los sectores productivos chinos.
Según un reciente editorial del Financial Times, China sigue confiando la mayor parte de su crecimiento económico a la inversión en bienes y equipos, con el resultado de que su mercado se ve inundado de productos que ni el consumo interno (por el bajo nivel de ingresos de los hogares chinos) ni el externo (por la crisis económica global) están en condiciones de absorber.
Un ejemplo paradigmático de cuanto llevamos dicho es la industria del acero, cuyo exceso de capacidad en el 2008 alcanzó una cifra superior a la total producción de ese bien en la Unión Europea. Qué hacer entonces con todo ese acero que se produce (o se podría producir) y no se vende. Una solución sería bajar los precios para de ese modo incrementar la demanda, pero entonces se produciría esa espiral deflacionista que a Shilochi, con razón, tan poco le gusta. La otra sería seguir como en la actualidad produciendo, no para el consumo, sino, fundamentalmente, para incrementar el inventario de bienes de inversión (nuevas fábricas y construcciones), aunque ello suponga agravar la situación de exceso de capacidad ya existente.
Los tecnócratas chinos parecen haber optado por esta última opción porque si no no se entiende que, para este año 2009, esté previsto incrementar en 58 millones de toneladas la capacidad de producción de acero. Y lo que decimos del acero puede extenderse a otros sectores productivos.
Naturalmente, esta situación no puede prolongarse indefinidamente y las propias autoridades chinas son conscientes de ello, pero han apostado por que una mejora del comercio internacional y finalmente del consumo interno permitirán, en un futuro próximo, rentabilizar los recursos hoy invertidos.
Mucho me temo sin embargo que su apuesta resultará fallida y que más pronto que tarde buena parte de los recursos que hoy se destinan a la inversión (en lugar, por ejemplo, de a mejorar el sistema de salud) acabarán calificándose como lo que realmente son: un derroche.
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